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Prediction for CME (2026-06-30T21:45:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-06-30T21:45Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/47199/-1
CME Note: Full halo CME currently observed only in GOES CCOR-1 and somewhat blocked by its pylon. Not yet observed in other coronagraphs due to a SOHO LASCO DSN gap between 2026-06-30T20:15Z to 2026-06-30T23:45Z, and STEREO A data gap starting at 2026-06-30T19:23Z. The source is associated with an X1.1 flare (N17W18) observed in SDO AIA 131 from AR 14479 (N16W22), peaking at 2026-06-30T20:50Z. Also observed as a NE-deflected EUV wave and wide swath of dimming in SDO AIA 193/211 centered around N20W05, brightening/flare ribbons along a channel to the NE of the region in SDO AIA 131/171/193/211/304, and a post-eruptive brightening starting around 2026-06-30T21:46Z. | Arrival signature: Shock detected in SOLAR 1, ACE, and IMAP real-time solar wind data. Using the SOLAR 1 data: B_total jumps from ~7 nT to ~11 nT, solar wind speed jumps from 395 km/s to 454 km/s, solar wind density jumps from 2.43 p/cc to 5.82 p/cc, and solar wind temperature jumps from 134k Kelvin to 187k Kelvin. Starting around 2026-07-03T18:00Z, a gradual increase from 8 to 20 nT is observed with a flux rope signature/magnetic field component stabilization following this, and wind speeds correspondingly increase from 450 km/s to 620 km/s.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T11:17Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.33

Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-07-03T05:39Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 5.0 - 7.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2026-07-01 00:32
 - Time at C2: 2026-06-30 21:45
 - Radial speed: 965.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 41 deg
 - Eruption location: N18W01
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 695.50 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2026-07-03 05:39 (i.e. predicted transit time: 55.92 hours)
Lead Time: 50.22 hour(s)
Difference: 5.63 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2026-07-01T09:04Z
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